Can We Still Accommodate Our Timetable Demand Given Social Distancing Guidelines?

This article explores this topic using a series of basic scenario tests, that aim to determine how an example institution’s teaching delivery would need to change in order to comply with social distancing guidelines. The aim of this being to highlight the severity of the actions that may need to be considered, whilst also presenting a proven methodology for testing a teaching estate’s ability to accommodate predicted demand.

This discussion has been broken down into the following sections;

• How to test whether the now reduced teaching space capacity can accommodate the predicted teaching demand
• Can the estate accommodate our teaching demand……
  • within the reduced capacity teaching spaces?
  • once the lecture theatre demand has also been removed?
  • once class sizes have also been reduced?
  • if contact hours are also reduced by 50% and the core teaching week is increased to Monday-Friday 09:00-21:00?
  • given further reductions in student onsite contact hours per module?
• Scenario conclusions
• When to carry out scenario testing?
• What to consider when carrying out a data modelling scenario
• How we can help
• Next time

How to test whether the now reduced teaching space capacity can accommodate the predicted teaching demand

The most effective and efficient method for testing whether the teaching estate can accommodate predicted demand, is to carry out a teaching space modelling exercise externally to the timetable database. This type of exercise can quickly calculate 10’s or 100’s of different scenarios and accurately determine the impact each will have on the teaching estate’s ability to accommodate the demand.

Any data modelling exercise is however only as good as the data it includes, therefore initially a data collection exercise is required to gather;

• Expected module delivery for the upcoming academic year

Ideally activity type demand per module, with detail specifying space type demand per week and including detail on how cohorts are split where necessary. If the timetable data collection process has already been completed for all modules, this data will provide an excellent starting point (or in many cases everything you need, depending on the data collected).

• Expected student numbers per module for the upcoming academic year

Given the predicted reduction in student numbers for the upcoming academic year, we recommend that those staff responsible for predicting course student numbers are consulted with. The aim being to determine whether the predicted numbers per module do need to be revised. If so, any reduction should be applied to the module delivery data, with number/size of groups amended accordingly.

• Reduced teaching space capacities given social distancing requirements

As outlined within our previous social distancing article, teaching space capacities will need to be recalculated for the upcoming academic year.

Once this data collection exercise has been completed, these datasets can now be used as the basis for answering a whole series of different questions. To help illustrate this process and what impact different solutions can have, we have created and used an example curriculum and estate dataset that incorporates 3 space types; lecture theatre, seminar & practical.

Can we accommodate our planned teaching demand within the reduced capacity teaching spaces?

To effectively answer this and all questions posed in the article, we will be aiming to provide 3 answers;

1. Yes/No
2. If no, how large is the shortfall in space? If yes, what is the impact?
3. What could solve any remaining problems?

So, can the estate accommodate the demand?

To answer this question, we first determined the current timetable frequency rate for each space type and used this as a guide to how often each room can realistically be booked. We then also decided to include some higher targets to demonstrate whether an increase in frequency could solve the problem.

It is important to recognise, that most institutions can’t simply increase their room frequency (or utilisation) without either increasing timetabling complexity or improving the efficiency of the timetabling process. Click on the image above to take a closer look at this relationship.

We then carried out a series of scenario modelling calculations using the data collected producing the following tables;

As demonstrated above, the teaching demand for each space type, requires spaces that are now significantly larger than those available once social distancing guidelines have been accounted for. Therefore;

1. No the planned teaching demand cannot be accommodated within the reduced capacity teaching spaces.
2. For all spaces types, the planned teaching activities are now larger than the room capacities available. In some cases planned teaching activities have class sizes that are 5 times the capacity of the largest room available.
3. With traditional lecture activities being delivered online towards the end of the 2019/20 academic year, this virtual delivery method could be continued for the upcoming year. This would remove the lecture theatre demand from the estate and open up the lecture theatres for use by the seminar activities.

Can the estate accommodate the teaching demand once the lecture theatre demand has also been removed?

For this scenario we removed the lecture theatre demand and adjusted the calculations so that the lecture theatres are now accounted for within the seminar space type table. The following tables now highlight whether the estate can accommodate the teaching demand once the lecture theatre demand has been removed.

As shown above the teaching demand for both space types is still for rooms of much higher capacity and therefore there is a significant shortfall in suitable space;

1. No the planned teaching demand cannot be accommodated, despite lecture theatres being available for seminar rooms.
2. For both spaces types, the planned activity class sizes still far exceed the rooms available. The availability of the lecture theatre spaces has helped, but the impact is minor when compared to the remaining shortfall.
3. With class sizes still far exceeding the capacities of the rooms available, group sizes must be reduced to that of the rooms available. This will cause the number of activities to increase, as we want to ensure students still receive the same number of seminar and practical contact hours.

Can the estate accommodate our teaching demand once class sizes have also been reduced?

Initially the curriculum dataset must be amended, so that the maximum class size for each teaching activity reflects the capacity of the rooms available per space type. We have decided that it is unlikely large class sizes will be advisable, even if capacity permits, therefore we have enforced a maximum class size of 15 for those activities that can be accommodated within the lecture theatre spaces.

We also want to ensure for this scenario that each student still receives the same number of contact hours. In addition, we want to be able to account for the range in space capacities available when adjusting the maximum class size.

The following tables now highlight whether the estate can accommodate the teaching demand once the teaching activity class sizes have been reduced:

As the tables above highlight, there is now a sizeable shortage in both seminar and practical spaces:

1. No the demand cannot be accommodated within the planned estate.
2. The number of teaching delivery hours now far exceeds the number of seminar & practical hours available each week. If aiming to accommodate the seminar and practical demand the institution requires 3-5 times more availability, depending on target frequency.
3. There can be two considerations at this stage, either increase the availability of space (by increasing the teaching week hours or number of weeks) or decrease the number of contact hours. If we were to consider one measure only at this stage, we would need to either multiply the available teaching hours by a factor of 3-5, or reduce contact hours by up to 80%. Given the scale of the space shortage, we will therefore address both demand and availability within the next scenario. We will halve the number of contact hours delivered for all modules and then also increase the teaching day from 39 hours per week (Mon, Tue, Thu, Fri 09:00-18:00 and Wed 09:00-12:00) to 60 hours per week (Mon-Fri, 09:00-21:00).

Can the estate accommodate the teaching demand if contact hours are also reduced by 50% and the teaching week is increased to Monday-Friday 09:00-21:00?

For this scenario, we reduced the contact hours per module by 50% and then adjusted the teaching week hours within the calculations, so that each room is now available for 60 hours per week. The following tables present the impact this has had upon the estate’s ability to accommodate the demand:

The shortage in teaching space has now been drastically reduced however the issue has not been solved, despite the contact hours being halved and the teaching week increasing by 21 hours.

1. No the demand still cannot be accommodated.
2. If the seminar spaces operated at a higher frequency of 70% the demand could now be accommodated, however the impact of increasing the teaching day and social distancing e.g. enforced gaps between classes, will almost certainly mean that an increase in frequency is unrealistic. The demand for practical space still exceeds availability, even if targeting a higher frequency.
3. For the purpose of this article we have decided to explore further reducing teaching delivery hours per module, however other options that increased availability/decreased demand could also be considered. Given only a minor further reduction in seminar demand is required, the contact hours per student will be reduced further from 1 hour to 50 minutes per activity. For the practical classes we will also reduce the contact hours further, from 1.5 hours to 1 hour per activity.

Can the estate accommodate the teaching demand given further reductions in student onsite contact hours per module?

For this scenario, we further reduced the contact hours per module from 1 hour to 50 minutes, for each module’s seminars (originally 2 hours per seminar). For the practical activities we have  further reduced each student’s contact hours by 30 minutes, to 1 hour per student (originally 3 hours per student). The following tables present the impact this has had upon the estate’s ability to accommodate the demand:

1. Possibly. Both the seminar and practical demand can be accommodated with a slight decrease (seminar) and increase (practical) in target frequency.
2. The fixed number of timetabling staff and likely increase in scheduling complexity may require timetable frequency to be lower than in previous years. Efforts will need to be made to reduce timetabling complexity and constraints if current or higher frequency recordings are targeted.
3. Onsite contact hours could be further reduced, or availability (rooms or time) further increased if looking to lower the frequency per space type further.

Scenario conclusions

This scenario modelling exercise has helped to demonstrate that major changes in onsite demand per student and the availability of teaching spaces will be required for the upcoming academic year. For our example institution;

• All lectures will need to be delivered online.
• Students can now only expect 50 minutes of onsite seminar contact time, for every 2 hours previously targeted.
• Students can now only expect 1 hour of onsite practical contact time, for every 3 hours previously targeted.
• The teaching week will increase by 21 hours.

Other scenarios could have been chosen, that also increase availability and/or reduce demand however all would need to address the same significant shortfall in space caused by social distancing guidelines.

What to consider when carrying out a data modelling scenario

The quality of the data collected is vitally important. Academic, timetabling, academic registry and estates departments will need to work closely in order to accurately determine the teaching estate’s new capacity as well as predicted teaching delivery for each scenario.

Availability and demand are the two factors that impact on any institution’s ability to accommodate all teaching hours.

Availability can be improved by increasing the number of hours a room is available for teaching purposes and/or increasing the capacity. This can be achieved by increasing the number of teaching rooms, increasing room capacity, increasing the teaching hours or increasing the number of teaching weeks.

Demand can be reduced, thereby reducing the number of hours the teaching space must accommodate. This can be achieved by moving content online, reducing contact hours, reducing student numbers and improving the accuracy of the timetable data (typically at least 10% of booked hours are not used during each teaching week).

When to carry out scenario testing

The time for scenario testing is now, departments must work together to determine the extent of the issue, using similar principles to those outlined in this article. This analysis can then be used to guide discussions on how teaching can be delivered onsite, with different scenarios then tested before any course delivery is re-planned. Each institution can thereby ensure that any proposed plan can be delivered within the estate, prior to staff spending time and resources adjusting their teaching delivery.

How we can help

Our curriculum and teaching space modelling service is the ideal tool for quickly carrying out scenario testing. We can explore options rapidly, accurately determining how your estate and teaching delivery can accommodate different demands and guidelines, such as social distancing. Providing you with the most effective and realistic solution for delivery teaching onsite during the 2020 and 2021 academic year.

What our service offers you:

1. An experienced problem-solving consultancy service, that will work with you to find the best solution for your institution.
2. A series of viable options for delivering teaching during the 2020 and 2021 academic year.
3. The ability to test 10’s or 100’s of different scenarios.
4. A detailed curriculum map that can be used to inform the scheduling process.
5. Data supported advice on how to make the most of your estate.

We can start working with you to solve your teaching delivery and estate challenges today, to find out more please do get in contact.

Next time

For our next article, we will be exploring what impact social distancing guidelines will have on offices and supporting spaces. Please sign up to our newsletter to receive this and all future articles via email.